Tell Me About DC20

AnotherGuy · Jun 14, 2024

Anon Adderlan said:
Just like last time.

That is a good point. Had forgotten about that.

Anon Adderlan said:
It isn't growing, it's becoming more divided.

You don't think the rate of D&D increase is matching the divisions (smaller fantasy RPG camps) which are currently being created? Is that base on a feeling, Enworld demographics or numbers?

Minigiant · Jun 14, 2024

AnotherGuy said:
.
I'd also challenge you that DC20 is more than 2-3 houses.

It's more 2-3 compounding house rules.

2-3 houses and the 10+ supporting house rules to support them. DC20 Doesnt stray far.

Meech17 · Jun 18, 2024

$1.5 Million at roughly the half-way mark. I wonder if it'll break $2million by the end.

I watched a Dungeon Craft video yesterday and it was sponsored by DC20. I was wondering how many people were plugging it just because they found it interesting, or because they were being paid. It appears at the very least Professor Dungeon Master and Bob World Builder are on the payroll.

Most of the content I consume these days comes from YouTube, and I had a video about DC20 suggested to me from a small channel with around 50 Subscribers called TnTori. I enjoy watching smaller creators so I checked it out. Apparently a lot of others did as well. Her little video about how she was interested in DC20 and thinking about switching from 5e garnered several thousand views and jumped her sub count to 500+.

It can't help but make me wonder if WoTC perhaps dropped the ball by going for a 5.5e instead of a 6e. It seems like there is a large portion of the community looking for change.

Reynard · Jun 18, 2024

Meech17 said:
$1.5 Million at roughly the half-way mark. I wonder if it'll break $2million by the end.

I watched a Dungeon Craft video yesterday and it was sponsored by DC20. I was wondering how many people were plugging it just because they found it interesting, or because they were being paid. It appears at the very least Professor Dungeon Master and Bob World Builder are on the payroll.

Most of the content I consume these days comes from YouTube, and I had a video about DC20 suggested to me from a small channel with around 50 Subscribers called TnTori. I enjoy watching smaller creators so I checked it out. Apparently a lot of others did as well. Her little video about how she was interested in DC20 and thinking about switching from 5e garnered several thousand views and jumped her sub count to 500+.

It can't help but make me wonder if WoTC perhaps dropped the ball by going for a 5.5e instead of a 6e. It seems like there is a large portion of the community looking for change.

I would hazard to guess that $2m would be an abject failure for a new edition in WotC's accounting.

mamba · Jun 18, 2024

Meech17 said:
$1.5 Million at roughly the half-way mark. I wonder if it'll break $2million by the end.

2M probably, 2.5M probably not

Meech17 said:
I watched a Dungeon Craft video yesterday and it was sponsored by DC20. I was wondering how many people were plugging it just because they found it interesting, or because they were being paid. It appears at the very least Professor Dungeon Master and Bob World Builder are on the payroll.

pretty much anyone is, I assume

Meech17 said:
Most of the content I consume these days comes from YouTube, and I had a video about DC20 suggested to me from a small channel with around 50 Subscribers called TnTori. I enjoy watching smaller creators so I checked it out. Apparently a lot of others did as well. Her little video about how she was interested in DC20 and thinking about switching from 5e garnered several thousand views and jumped her sub count to 500+.

channels of this size might be the exception to the above

Meech17 said:
It can't help but make me wonder if WoTC perhaps dropped the ball by going for a 5.5e instead of a 6e. It seems like there is a large portion of the community looking for change.

no they did not, and that is coming from someone who wanted the more drastic changes of the earlier playtests to make it in.

DC20 will hit maybe 25k backers, maybe double that in sales after the KS to 50k. Let's then assume that this amounts to 250k players. That pales in comparison to WotC's 25M, a drop in the bucket.... there will always be people for who the changes went too far and others for who they did not go far enough, that is not an indication of WotC having messed up

Meech17 · Jun 18, 2024

Reynard said:
I would hazard to guess that $2m would be an abject failure for a new edition in WotC's accounting.

mamba said:
no they did not, and that is coming from someone who wanted the more drastic changes of the earlier playtests to make it in.

DC20 will hit maybe 25k backers, maybe double that in sales after the KS to 50k. Let's then assume that this amounts to 250k players. That pales in comparison to WotC's 25M, a drop in the bucket.... there will always be people for who the changes went too far and others for who they did not go far enough, that is not an indication of WotC having messed up

I'm sure there is a huge percentage of people who will buy into the new edition of D&D, and would have regardless of how much or how little it changed. There's also a lot of new players who will buy into the new edition because it'll simply be the 'current' edition and will be the one available to them.

What I'm wondering however is what are the sizes of the two segments in the community.. The segment that will not buy the new edition because they want a more drastic change, and maybe will go to a different game..

And then in our thought experiment alternate reality where they made a 6e.. What's the size of the segment that won't convert, and opt to stick to the old edition.

What I mean by asking if WotC dropped the ball here, is just wondering, how big are these two potential segments of the community, and would they have been better off catering to one rather than the other. I'm not suggesting that the success of DC20 and other big "D&D Killers" will actually succeed in usurping D&D.. But perhaps their impressive numbers are a sign that the community is ready for a new edition, in a way that they weren't back during 4e.

Reynard · Jun 18, 2024

Meech17 said:
I'm sure there is a huge percentage of people who will buy into the new edition of D&D, and would have regardless of how much or how little it changed. There's also a lot of new players who will buy into the new edition because it'll simply be the 'current' edition and will be the one available to them.

What I'm wondering however is what are the sizes of the two segments in the community.. The segment that will not buy the new edition because they want a more drastic change, and maybe will go to a different game..

And then in our thought experiment alternate reality where they made a 6e.. What's the size of the segment that won't convert, and opt to stick to the old edition.

What I mean by asking if WotC dropped the ball here, is just wondering, how big are these two potential segments of the community, and would they have been better off catering to one rather than the other. I'm not suggesting that the success of DC20 and other big "D&D Killers" will actually succeed in usurping D&D.. But perhaps their impressive numbers are a sign that the community is ready for a new edition, in a way that they weren't back during 4e.

D&D got big enough that it can't take risks.

Elvish Lore · Jun 18, 2024

Reynard said:
D&D got big enough that it can't take risks.

I really do think it's that exactly.

Unless D&D approaches some kind of fail state in terms of $$, there's little reason for WotC to change D&D from its most popular edition. There's just no incentive to rock the boat. Certainly 'better' game design isn't it.

They did this before when they wanted to reinvigorate D&D sales coming out of 3.5 and we saw what happens -- people were fleeing D&D because 4e felt like a different game to them and one they didn't like. 4e might have had better game design but that didn't matter. Majority of people didn't care for it.

If 5.24 sales are flat, we'll see a 6e down the road that significantly deviates from 5e design. But if sales are decent - even if they're not stellar but merely decent -- we'll see yet another iteration of 5e in the 2030s.

The good news is that little publishers like DC20 or MCDM have the opportunity to push D&D-ish fantasy rpgs in interesting directions

mamba · Jun 18, 2024

Meech17 said:
What I'm wondering however is what are the sizes of the two segments in the community.. The segment that will not buy the new edition because they want a more drastic change, and maybe will go to a different game..

And then in our thought experiment alternate reality where they made a 6e.. What's the size of the segment that won't convert, and opt to stick to the old edition.

you won't get useful answers for either. I think it is too early for an actual 6e edition, 5e is still selling much to well to abandon it for an incompatible 6e, and if you have to stay compatible, there are limits to how far you can change the game.

You will need to distinguish several groups here

people moving to the 2024 books
people staying with the 2014 books
people that are playing 5e now but are abandoning it because they want something fresh and 2024 is not it

The first group is maybe 3/4 of the player base (and by that I mean buy 2024 and use it exclusively or mix and match with 2014). Much of the rest will stay with the 2014 books and not jump ship. That last quarter will still be served by new WotC adventures etc. because 2014 and 2024 are compatible.

And from here on it becomes purely hypothetical.... there is no way of knowing the percentage switching over to a true 6e, esp. since we have no idea what that 6e would actually look like.

If we go with the past results, I'd say you are lucky if 50% switch over (1e to 2e, 3e to 4e mostly). Assuming we take this baseline, then we have

Update of 5e: 75% upgrade, most of the rest stays in the 5e system
True 6e release: 50% switch over, the other 50% are lost to the 6e system, you just halved your market

Anon Adderlan · Jun 20, 2024

AnotherGuy said:
You don't think the rate of D&D increase is matching the divisions (smaller fantasy RPG camps) which are currently being created? Is that base on a feeling, Enworld demographics or numbers?

Fair question, as objective numbers are hard to come by, but yes. Sales are in decline, margins are shrinking, and games like #DC20 are specifically designed to appeal to those dissatisfied with D&D.

Meech17 said:
It can't help but make me wonder if WoTC perhaps dropped the ball by going for a 5.5e instead of a 6e. It seems like there is a large portion of the community looking for change.

#WotC has no clue why D&D is successful, which is why they keep repeating the same mistakes they made with 4e and relying on brand recognition, vendor lock-in, and the sunk cost fallacy.

Tell Me About DC20

AnotherGuy

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Minigiant

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Meech17

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Reynard

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mamba

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Meech17

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Reynard

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Elvish Lore

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mamba

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Anon Adderlan

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